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International bull market | International beef market chaos, the domestic market will change? !

2024-11-23(6) views

　　In 2024, with a wave of imported frozen beef dumping in the country, the domestic beef cattle industry price battlefield war.However, since the second half of the year, natural disasters in Brazil, th...


In 2024, with a wave of imported frozen beef dumping in the country, the domestic beef cattle industry price battlefield war.


However, since the second half of the year, natural disasters in Brazil, the adjustment of import strategies in the United States, and the United States election have come and gone, and the international situation has finally ushered in fluctuations.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, in the third quarter of this year (7/8/September), China's beef imports fell by 140,000 tons (about 5,185 cabinets) compared with the third quarter of 2023. Followed by, is constantly coming from the street "beef prices" voice.

Is the price of domestic beef market really going to usher in a recovery? In which direction will the domestic beef cattle industry develop? What is the international situation like?

01

Production capacity in the international market continues to decline


Since the second half of 2024, the global beef cattle market has shown a complex supply-demand situation.


NZ

Combined with previous years, New Zealand's national cattle population has been declining at a rate of 1% per year. It may continue to decline in the future.


Paraguay

Severe drought in the West has forced many producers to bring more cattle to market, so heavy ongoing slaughter in 2024, forcing late supply shortfalls, could further reduce exports through 2025.

Brazil

In August, 107,000 tons were exported to China, but with the tight supply of domestic cows in Brazil, the slaughter cycle has been shortened to five days, and future supply may be affected.

America

With the end of the US election, the price of soybean, corn and other farming kernel feeds may fluctuate in the future, and the cost of domestic farming may fluctuate further.

home

In the first half of the year, China increased the slaughter of cows, which increased the domestic supply to a certain extent, but with the price falling all the way, imported beef still has an advantage in the domestic market.


02
Brazil's supply has declined, and the domestic market has weakened


China's core imports of beef from Brazil, a big supplier, in the second half of the supply continues to decline.


Compared with September and October this year, the price of beef exported by Brazil rose 4.7% per ton from the previous month, an increase of $209 per ton, reflecting the dual impact of the recovery of market demand and tight supply.

The reasons for this change can be attributed to three reasons:


1. Us market demand share

The United States has a quota system for imported beef. Within the quota, tariff-free. This, coupled with a decline in the U.S. domestic herd, has reduced supply, increasing demand for imported beef.

2. Increased domestic supply in Brazil

Due to the drought in Brazil this year, forage growth is limited, feed shortage supply is tight, a large number of cattle weight loss, under the limited resources, breeding enterprises need to give priority to domestic demand.


3. Epidemic disease was found in exported products

In July, Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture (MAPA) confirmed an outbreak of Newcastle disease at a poultry farm in Rio Grande do Sul, the southernmost state of Brazil.


03

The situation is volatile. Seize the opportunity for steady development


In November 2024, the global beef market will continue to be affected by fluctuations in demand across major consumer markets. Imported beef prices continued to rise in early November.

Competition in the international market can ease the tension in the domestic beef market and promote the rapid development of the market.

Therefore, seizing the opportunity to increase internal supply is the best way to resist the invasion of imported beef prices.



Enhance quality competitiveness

With the outbreak of beef disease in Brazil this year, people are more confident about local products. And in the face of the coming surge in the price of imported beef, consumers will be more willing to pay more for safe ingredients.

Ensuring the quality of domestic beef is the best response to price shocks.


Follow the strategic deployment

With the leading development and practice of domestic enterprises, feeding products and feeding patterns that can improve the quality and efficiency of beef cattle breeding, such as "whole diet", will become more and more common in the future.

Small and medium-sized enterprises should do well"Follow the strategic deployment"Always respond to future market changes.


The second half of the year is the peak season for global meat consumption, with the arrival of autumn and winter,Residents in the diet will be more inclined to hot pot, soup dishes, meatDemand will rise.

How do breeding enterprises do layout planning, and how do terminal sales open the market?

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