Feed Times | Beware! Soybean prices continue to dive, the feed industry is coming!
2024-11-23(8) views
Soybean meal price cut wave
A price backlash is coming
Data source: Internet (infringement deletion)
Soybean prices have been falling since 2024. According to Internet quotes, as of mid-November, the price of corn per ton fell by 20-30 yuan, and soybean meal fell by 170-180 yuan.
Soybean meal decline, coupled with the United States election is about to bring fluctuations in the soybean market, many farmers began to "bottom" stock.
However, just when everyone thought that the farming industry was about to usher in a turning point, New Hope, Haida, Zhonghui Agriculture and animal husbandry, Shandong Junnuo, Jiujiu and animal husbandry and other enterprises have announced a price increase of 30 to 50 yuan/ton.
As a complementary product of beef cattle in the market, the price of feed increases, which means that the domestic soybean meal market inventory is not ideal, and the price increase trend may be near.
Domestic soybean meal stocks accelerated the decline
PART 01
Domestic soybean meal inventory declines
As of mid-November, the domestic soybean meal inventory was about 810,000 tons, 170,000 tons lower than the previous week, about 240,000 tons lower than the same period last month, and nearly 500,000 tons lower than before the National Day.
(Data source: Xinliang Network)
With the weakening of the oil meal market and crushing profits, the domestic soybean crushing volume or maintain a relatively low level in the next period of time, and the soybean meal supply is still likely to decrease.
With the rising tide of feed prices released by the pig industry, the rising price of beef feed may follow the rising price. Domestic feed prices have stabilized for the time being
PART 02
Feed prices are currently stable
With the advancement and development of the feeding business of mulberry plants such as hybrid conformation tree in China, the feed system based on hybrid conformation tree as the core is gradually promoted in the domestic market.
The nutrient content of hybrid conformation tree can be more than 25%, and the raw materials rich in trace elements, the nutritional function is more complete. In terms of supply, it is more adequate than alfalfa and can greatly reduce the dependence on soybean meal.
Similar to the stable composition of the whole diet, raw material stability of the feed, not susceptible to the impact of market prices, the purchase price is relatively stable, farmers can also effectively respond to this wave of price increases.
The international soybean market is stable
PART 03
Domestic soybean meal inventory declines
According to the US Department of Agriculture data, US soybean production, exports, crushing and ending stocks were all reduced, but the forecast production is still at a record high.
The soybean production of Brazil and Argentina in South America also maintained 169 million tons and 51 million tons, respectively, from the data point of view, the global supply has not been affected, and the international supply remains stable.
According to the General Administration of Customs data, as of the end of September, Brazil soybeans accounted for 76.04% of China's imports of soybeans, the United States accounted for 17.77%, compared with the same period last year +3.93%, -5.07%.
Combined with the data, the soybean market is still hostage to the import market.
The good news is that according to the industry life cycle law, beef cattle prices should recover in the first half of 2025 after experiencing a sustained decline.
Choosing the optimal feeding mode and choosing the more cost-effective feed ratio and brand is the best strategy to fight the price battle.
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